Actuarial Science
Pricing, reserving, capital modelling and experience analysis grounded in frequency–severity methods, survival models and extreme-value theory.
Explore actuarial pricing, reserving and capital modellingFounder and Chief Executive Officer, Quantica Risk Modelling
Jonas Osman Abdelghafour
Actuarial, Financial Risk and Quantitative Modelling Expert
Connecting actuarial science, banking risk, insurance capital and quantitative models with practical executive decisions.
Professional focus
Jonas Osman Abdelghafour works across actuarial modelling, financial risk, banking and insurance capital, and the governance of quantitative models. The through-line is practical: models exist to inform decisions about pricing, capital, liquidity, underwriting, risk appetite and strategic resilience.
More than twenty years of experience across banking, insurance, asset and liability management, market and liquidity risk, model validation and capital adequacy inform that perspective. The work spans regulatory processes such as ICAAP, ILAAP, IFRS 9, ORSA and IFRS 17, alongside quantitative frameworks for geopolitical risk, marine war risk, climate risk and economic scenarios. In each case the objective is the same — a defensible, documented route from uncertain evidence to a decision a board can take and explain.
Areas of expertise
Nine connected disciplines
Financial Risk Management
Market, credit and liquidity risk, capital adequacy, stress testing and risk appetite connected into one coherent enterprise framework.
See how market, credit and liquidity risk connect to capitalBanking and Prudential Risk
ICAAP, ILAAP, IRRBB, IFRS 9 and recovery planning treated as management instruments rather than regulatory submissions.
Review ICAAP, ILAAP, IRRBB and IFRS 9 practiceInsurance Risk and Capital
ORSA, solvency capital, IFRS 17, underwriting risk, reinsurance structuring and accumulation control across the insurance balance sheet.
Examine ORSA, solvency capital and IFRS 17 practiceModel Risk and Validation
Independent validation across conceptual soundness, data, calibration, back-testing, benchmarking, stability and ongoing monitoring.
Read the validation framework for banking and insurance modelsMarine and Geopolitical Risk
War-risk exposure, conflict-event modelling, chokepoint accumulation and the route from geopolitical signal to technical premium.
Understand conflict-event modelling for marine war riskClimate and Catastrophe Risk
Physical and transition risk, hazard–vulnerability–exposure modelling, tail estimation, climate scenarios and insurance affordability.
Explore physical, transition and catastrophe risk modellingAI and Quantitative Modelling
Machine learning, Bayesian inference, stochastic processes and simulation, applied with explainability, validation and human oversight.
See quantitative methods and responsible AI practice in riskFeatured insights
Selected professional articles
Risk Governance4 min read
Risk Governance in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence has not created a new category of risk governance. It has stressed the existing one, by increasing the number of decision-influencing systems faster than most institu…
By Jonas Osman Abdelghafour
Model Risk4 min read
How to Validate Machine-Learning Models in Regulated Financial Institutions
Machine-learning models are subject to the same validation obligations as any other model, with additional attention required in four areas: data leakage, stability, explainability and bias.…
By Jonas Osman Abdelghafour
Geopolitical Risk5 min read
Geopolitical Risk Models for Marine Insurance: Opportunities and Limitations
Quantitative geopolitical risk models attempt to express political and security conditions as parameters an insurer can price and capitalise. They offer consistency and speed that narrative …
By Jonas Osman Abdelghafour
Banking Risk4 min read
ICAAP and ILAAP: Turning Regulatory Exercises into Management Tools
The internal capital and liquidity adequacy assessment processes exist to answer two questions a board should be able to answer anyway: do we hold enough capital for the risks we actually ru…
By Jonas Osman Abdelghafour
Quantitative Methods4 min read
Extreme-Value Theory for Insurance and Financial Tail Risk
Extreme-value theory provides a principled basis for estimating the probability of losses larger than anything in the observed record. Its appeal is that the limiting distributions are deriv…
By Jonas Osman Abdelghafour
Marine Insurance5 min read
Marine War-Risk Pricing: From Conflict Events to Technical Premium
Marine war-risk pricing translates a political and security assessment into a per-transit premium. The chain runs from exposure definition through event probability and severity to accumulat…
By Jonas Osman Abdelghafour
A separate professional initiative
Quantica Risk Modelling
Quantica Risk Modelling focuses on transforming complex risk signals into decision-relevant quantitative outputs across geopolitical, marine, climate, actuarial and financial risk. Possible applications include event-risk measurement, marine war-risk pricing inputs, capital assessment, underwriting limits, risk-appetite metrics, climate-risk analytics, economic scenario generation and model governance evidence.
Quantica's analytical frameworks are intended for modelling, research and professional decision support. They do not constitute insurance coverage, investment advice, legal advice or a guarantee of future outcomes. Any regulated service is subject to the applicable authorisation and contractual framework.
Read about Quantica Risk Modelling